As I write this, the MLB trade deadline is tomorrow evening. The Giants stand at 2 games below .500. They’ve waited a long time for their starting pitching to come off injuries, and over the past two weeks, we’re starting to see how impactful former Cy Young winners Blake Snell and Robbie Ray can be. There are lot of rumors that the Giants will trade Snell, but as a fan, I think if you get a true superstar to galvanize the fan base and go for winning without taking two steps back as a team, you go for it.
I don’t typically think of MLB trades, but it’s so much more complicated to understand the dynamics of near and long term planning and salary management in baseball. But I’ve looked at past comparable trades for superstars including the Juan Soto trade to the Pirates to propose this package to the Blue Jays for Guerrero, Jr.
Marco Luciano or Bryce Eldridge
Carson Whisenhunt or Hayden Birdsong
Camilo Doval
Lamont Wade Jr
One other prospect from the top 5-15 list, Blue Jays choice.
In summary, the Giants would trade their #1 hitting prospect, their #1 pitching prospect, their (2023) All Star closer who has 3 more years of team control, and starting first baseman who has another year of team control, and one more top 15 prospect for one of the most popular players in the game who has one more year of team control. Birdsong has played pretty well in the majors so far, and Whisenhunt and Luciano are both at AAA. Eldridge may reach AA this year, so this is a good assortment of legit major league players and almost ready players.
Wade is a legit good MLB hitter, 20% and 40% better than the average hitter the last two years in OPS+. His main issue is injuries. He’s 30 this year but still improving. Guerrero replaces him directly. Doval just turned 27, throws 100MPH. His control can be his downfall, and I think the Rogers twins could replace him ably as the Giants closers. Someone like Reggie Crawford could become the Giants’ next Doval. The Blue Jays have their own All Star closer who has been injured most of the year and could keep both or trade one.
The Blue Jays only do this trade if they’re non-committal about the massive contract decision.
The Giants could then offer Guerrero 15 years at a backloaded $460M (and replacing the last arbitration year), the second largest contract in MLB history, $100M more than the current second place, Aaron Judge. Guerrero is only 25 years old and while not a good fielder (he does have a Gold Glove), this contract takes him to his 40th birthday. He’s only 6 months older than my crush Heliot Ramos, and is already a 4 time All Star. While $460M is no small sum, the average yearly value is just above $31M. 10 years ago, the most valuable per year contract was Ryan Howard at $24M. This year, 4 players including Judge, but not Ohtani since his payments are deferred, are making at least $40M per year. That’s over a 50% increase.
This is all to say, $30M in ten to fifteen years is likely going to feel more like today’s $20M towards the end of the contract with inflation and the expansion of salaries.
He may miss the ball (13 and 12 percentile for whiff % and strikeout %) a lot, but he has a good eye (74 percentile for walks), so he’s patient, waiting for something to hit. When he connects, whew! All in the 90 percentile, meaning he is in the top 10% of players in: Expected Slugging, Average Exit Velocity, Bat Speed, Barrel % Hard-Hit %. He fields well (85 percentile in range) and can run (72) in sprint speed but is mediocre in actual baserunning (45 percentile).
This all started with a desire to ride off-road a few years ago. When COVID came, quickly followed by a move to Colorado, I was primed to be another road cyclist converting to safer adventures away from four wheel vehicles.
I bought an entry level hardtail mountain bike, ventured out once into 15 degrees F and snow, but never had much of an opportunity to explore further in Colorado as I soon moved back to California, and found myself a 30 mile drive from actual mountains.
I then became obsessed with the idea to build out a top of the line gravel bike at a non-top-of-the-line price. And so started this appeal to my loves of research and deal hunting.
The total cost of the build, was $5,126 or the equivalent of $4,736 before local taxes.
I built a 2024 Giant Revolt Advanced Pro weighing 17.9 pounds (8.1 kg) with pedals (or 17.1 pounds without (7.8 kg) if you want to compare it to the standard way bicycle companies and retailers list bikes). 1×13 speed with Campagnolo Ekar, a Cane Creek suspension stem paired with a Ritchey WCS Venturemax carbon handlebar, and a Light Bicycle XC930 wheelset that weighs just 1142G with tubeless tape rolling S-Works Pathfinder 42mm tires that have widened to 46mm.
While $5K is a lot of money for a bike, this is not quite on the upper end as bikes go. Keep in mind that Giant’s own top of the line build, the Advanced Pro 0 is $1,500 more at $6,500. Other than lacking electronic shifting, I think my build is better.
If we’re going against this nine bikeGravel Race Bike throwdown, this build would be the second or third lightest bike and the second cheapest. To be fair, my build would also be the only mechanical shifting bike.
If we’re talking about adventure bikes, my build would be the lightest and 4th cheapest of the nineteen in contention.
I realize that price to weight for a bike says very little about if the bike is actually good, so let’s go further into the specific components.
I don’t race, but I still want a fast bike, a bike that would be good enough to be great in a race even if its rider was not.
The Revolt isn’t aero, but it’s received wonderful reviews, including Bike of the Year from Bike Radar in 2022 and Ben Delaney’s mention as his favorite gravel bike of 2023. Delaney’s thoughts mean a lot to me because unlike most people, he’s basically tried all the bikes and been successful racing many of them.
The Revolt has a much more relaxed geometry relative to dedicated gravel race bikes like the Cervelo Aspero 5, making it comfortable as a general adventure bike and perhaps road endurance bike. You can optimize performance for smaller (up to 45mm) or larger (up to 53mm) tires with its flip chip. It has a ton of mounting options for bikepacking and the top tube bag as pictured in my build.
Overall, I felt the Revolt could somehow be and do everything for both racing and general adventure and yet this premium frameset only retails for $2100! The best offerings from Specialized, 3T, and Cervelo cost from $3,500 to $5,000.
I have a gravel event in April, so I’ll be using 42mm (46mm actual width) S-Works Pathfinder tires for that. I’ll then try a double century (200 mile event) in May with 35mm Continental GP5000 AS TR road tires as I use the Revolt as a road endurance bike. Expect for me to give ride impressions from both styles of riding in the future. Even though I could easily run the bike slammed for looks and slightly more aero performance, I’m trying for a more relaxed approach first to see it how feels.
I bought the frameset from Clubhaus in New York, which shipped it to me for free with no sales tax. I really liked working with Effy – he answered all my super annoying questions and even got on calls with me. He didn’t ignore me post-purchase either.
Late last summer, I bought my second pair of wheels from Light Bicycle, a 37mm external width ultra wide, 1150g ultra light, non-aero tubeless hookless wheel set.
Light Bicycle also sells a gravel-focused wheelset with 30mm external width. Here’s how those two options stack up:
From watching recent trends in road cycling, I felt it didn’t make sense to put 40mm+ tires on 30mm external width rims. I thought a even wider rim would make the actual tire-on-rim width wider, providing more traction in the dirt without adding extra weight, facilitating lower tire pressure, and avoiding the lightbulb effect with tires that are significantly wider than the rim they’re on. Since I’m completely new to gravel, I was worried my thought process was dumb but I asked around to get enough confidence I wasn’t stupid and that the XC rim (normally for heavy duty mountain biking) would hold up great for gravel. Conventional wisdom and bike industry standards say it’s not a good idea, but since I started riding in 2016, common tire sizes on the road have ballooned from 23MM all the way to 28/30mm. These last 7 years have seen a huge shift relative to the decades before them and I would not be surprised for gravel wheelsets and tires to make the same jumps soon.
I know that aero gravel is becoming a big thing, but I’m just not sold that 40MM+ width tires on 40mm depth wheelsets are actually all that aero. (See Rene Herse and Hambini) I agree that deeper wheels look nicer, but I think the wider tire sizes being run by most people negate most of the aero effects. Now, if you’re a high level racer cranking up massive watts to overcome the slower speeds of dirt riding, there’s probably some positive net effect there, but I’d rather have my ultralight wheel set – deeper gravel wheel sets are typically 1500G or more, nearly a .8 pound gain on my XC930s. On the road, I can average 20MPH riding solo for a couple of hours on relatively flat California valley roads, but I doubt I could get above 18MPH on dirt with the same depth (46.5 mm) aero wheels.
These XC930 wheels cost me just under $1300 and are laser etched to celebrate the birth of my daughter. Ignoring that level of customization, which isn’t available from most wheel brands, these wheels are easily, at least in spec, the match of $2K wheels from more known Western brands.
I consider Campagnolo a brand for the super wealthy bike enthusiast. I never thought I would ride a Campagnolo groupset.
The groupset retails for $1700, but last year I saw that new sets were selling for under $900 on eBay. Even though Ekar was mechanical shifting, I liked that it was 13 speed (Shimano and SRAM were 11 and 12 speed), it was the lightest gravel groupset around, and it may have the best braking performance among gravel groupsets.
Ekar also looks great.
While I love electronic shifting, an alternative from Shimano or SRAM would not have been available at the Ekar price and I would also miss the benefits stated above. I saw this as a chance to get the best of mechanical groupset technology at a great price. An un-Campagnolo-like price.
I have no bike handling skills that I am aware of, and I was worried about fatigue from riding in the rough. Carbon components help with compliance, but when I read people’s impressions around suspension stems from Cane Creek and Redshift, I wanted one for my build. The impression was that it was a real game changer as a shock absorber for one’s hands.
At the same time, I wanted to keep the original specs of the Revolt handlebar/stem system that had won the bike so many accolades, and those bikes came with a 60mm stem for size small frames. Neither Cane Creek or Redshift had such a short stem, but when Black Friday came around, both had nice discounts, and Cane Creek has the smaller stem option at 70mm.
It’s about 140G heavier (.3 lbs) than ultralight options, but I felt the performance benefit was worth the weight.
The decision around the Venturemax handlebar came from wanting something light weight with flared drops (wider in the bottom than the top) for improved handling in the drops and a flat aero section for hand position on climbs and normal riding. I also liked the more aero position of having hoods turned inwards.
• Drop 102mm (-23mm)
• Reach 76mm (+4mm, or +14MM if including added stem length)
• 24° Flare (for 52.5cm width at the drops)
If you look through the rest of my build, you’ll notice titanium screws and a number of other decisions for aesthetics.
Overall, the frame’s Forest Green color is complimented with red/pink and gold through the build. The wheel’s spoke nipples mix florescent green and red to reflect my daughter’s nickname, Strawberry.
A few more items I want to note: • The S-Works Pathfinder Pro tires are super fast, super durable with good traction and one of Ben Delaney’s favorites. They expanded from their 42MM official width to 46MM on my wheels. They’re low weight for their width and I can run them at low pressure and feel comfortable on a wide variety of rough terrain. I didn’t want to have 4 different types of tires that I’d need to switch out constantly. These tires are also a good deal at $70 relative to high end road tires that are typically $100 each. • Since this bike was for gravel riding, I was worried about paint damage and looked into paint protection options. Invisiframe looked like the best deal for complete frame coverage. The work to get it installed is very hard and time consuming. In fact, even though I worked on it for hours (do it in sunlight so you can see imperfections easier), I still left some problems. Invisiframe was awesome, however. When I asked if they had a few extra pieces they ended up sending me a whole new set because I messed up half the install. It wouldn’t be so obvious to someone a couple feet away, but it was obvious to me because I had worked so hard on it. Unfortunately, I didn’t get the second set perfectly done either, but it was better than the first time. When I moved the frame into outdoor sunlight through my garage, I tapped the frame’s rear wheel area into a wall or door and some of the paint chipped off. Yes, I chipped the paint in the process of trying to get the paint protected. Idiot. • I got the Apidura top tube bag because it is much easier to access when riding compared to handlebar bags and thus better for eating while riding. This bag can screw into the Revolt frame instead of using straps, it’s thin to avoid touching my knees, and people regard it very positively.
Notes around Building up the Frame
Putting this bike together was more than just the research, I wanted to build it all myself as well. With all the parts I gathered, I was aiming for a light, fast, and very comfortable bike that could go on a wide variety of surfaces and ride fast on all of them.
I was able to figure out most stuff on my own, but did end up getting some help to cut the seatpost and steerer tube as well as to fix the shifting. While I can’t say I ultimately did it all myself, I feel I learned enough to which if I did it again, I could do it all myself.
A few more notes:
1) The Giant Revolt Advanced Pro frame was a bit heavier than I expected. I was hoping to achieve a 17 pound build, but missed that by a pound.
2) The steerer tube spacers only look good with Giant’s handlebar, which doesn’t come with the frameset. Using them with a normal stem opens gaps for dirt to go through, which I wasn’t comfortable with. It was not so easy to find options for alternative dust caps.
3) You can’t fully hide your cables because the Revolt has a standard size head tube. I had asked Effy from Clubhaus about this before purchasing, but was a still bit disappointed.
The real difficulty around the build was Ekar. I learned that setting it up could be a real pain, specifically around the getting the shifting right. I eventually took it to my local bike shop and even they had issues. It got to the extent I did not know if we could solve it because few people have experience working with Campagnolo or Ekar, and certainly no one in my area. In the end, I don’t know exactly what the fix was but I ended up compiling a guide to help future Ekar enthusiasts.
Thanks so much to multiple communities, and primarily the folks at Paceline, for talking through things with me.
Future Changes
I’m really happy with the build, and I’m not sure what I want to do for more weight/performance optimizations. Of course, I need to start riding it extensively first!
If I can get a 165mm Ekar crankarms for cheap, I’d like to do that as I ride 160mm on the road.
I could also get a lighter seatpost that’s still gravel/compliance oriented and a lighter version of my current saddle, but that’s probably about 160g (.35 pounds) of potential weight savings at $400 or more. Perhaps it’s inevitable I’ll make those changes but thinking about it now, I’m not so sure I care.
As part of some upgrades from Ultegra 8050 / 8070 to Dura Ace 9150 / 9170, I’ll be trying out a 52-34 (typically you would use 52-36 subcompact or 50-34 compact) gearing. I replaced the 50t chainring on my Shimano 105 R7000 160mm crankset, with a lighter 52t Ultegra one.
This setup is not officially recommended due to loss in potential shifting quality, but I’ve read enough to feel it won’t be an issue, especially with DI2. The benefits of doing this is I’ll gain higher top-end speed with the 52t, most useful on descents, while still retaining the same climbing capabilities with the 34t. I decided to swap out my 11-34 cassette with a 11-28 as I mainly ride on flats now and the condensed gearing will allow to me to have smaller jumps between cogs. I’ll be able to switch back to an 11-34 when necessary, for specific events with a lot of climbing.
I’ve adjusted my DI2 synchro shift accordingly, and will be using 15 gears.
3 years ago, I finished third on a Zwift group ride. Yes, it was a group ride and not a race, but nearly 200 people participated so I felt it was a good result. I never did so well again until a few days ago.
I finished 2nd place in my group (B), 3rd overall in a field of 20. I should be thrilled, but ZwiftPower only recognized 6 total competitors and in my group I finished last. Thus I didn’t even get positive ranking points.
So still waiting on my first true podium finish and good result.