The Cost of the San Francisco Giants Acquiring Vladimir Guerrero, Jr

As I write this, the MLB trade deadline is tomorrow evening. The Giants stand at 2 games below .500. They’ve waited a long time for their starting pitching to come off injuries, and over the past two weeks, we’re starting to see how impactful former Cy Young winners Blake Snell and Robbie Ray can be. There are lot of rumors that the Giants will trade Snell, but as a fan, I think if you get a true superstar to galvanize the fan base and go for winning without taking two steps back as a team, you go for it.

I don’t typically think of MLB trades, but it’s so much more complicated to understand the dynamics of near and long term planning and salary management in baseball. But I’ve looked at past comparable trades for superstars including the Juan Soto trade to the Pirates to propose this package to the Blue Jays for Guerrero, Jr.

  • Marco Luciano or Bryce Eldridge
  • Carson Whisenhunt or Hayden Birdsong
  • Camilo Doval
  • Lamont Wade Jr
  • One other prospect from the top 5-15 list, Blue Jays choice.

In summary, the Giants would trade their #1 hitting prospect, their #1 pitching prospect, their (2023) All Star closer who has 3 more years of team control, and starting first baseman who has another year of team control, and one more top 15 prospect for one of the most popular players in the game who has one more year of team control. Birdsong has played pretty well in the majors so far, and Whisenhunt and Luciano are both at AAA. Eldridge may reach AA this year, so this is a good assortment of legit major league players and almost ready players.

Wade is a legit good MLB hitter, 20% and 40% better than the average hitter the last two years in OPS+. His main issue is injuries. He’s 30 this year but still improving. Guerrero replaces him directly. Doval just turned 27, throws 100MPH. His control can be his downfall, and I think the Rogers twins could replace him ably as the Giants closers. Someone like Reggie Crawford could become the Giants’ next Doval. The Blue Jays have their own All Star closer who has been injured most of the year and could keep both or trade one.

The Blue Jays only do this trade if they’re non-committal about the massive contract decision.

The Giants could then offer Guerrero 15 years at a backloaded $460M (and replacing the last arbitration year), the second largest contract in MLB history, $100M more than the current second place, Aaron Judge. Guerrero is only 25 years old and while not a good fielder (he does have a Gold Glove), this contract takes him to his 40th birthday. He’s only 6 months older than my crush Heliot Ramos, and is already a 4 time All Star. While $460M is no small sum, the average yearly value is just above $31M. 10 years ago, the most valuable per year contract was Ryan Howard at $24M. This year, 4 players including Judge, but not Ohtani since his payments are deferred, are making at least $40M per year. That’s over a 50% increase.

This is all to say, $30M in ten to fifteen years is likely going to feel more like today’s $20M towards the end of the contract with inflation and the expansion of salaries.

A Guide to Selling Your Car through Daniel Kahneman’s “Thinking Fast and Slow” Methodology

I recently listed my 2020 Tesla for sale and sold it in 1.5 weeks. Autotrader (or Cars.com?) predicted I would sell it in a bit over 3 weeks considering market demand and my pricing.

An overview of my preparation:

  • I learned that demand for the Tesla Y right now is quite soft, and my research suggested that the overall demand for EVs is not strong.
  • I researched third party pricing through KBB and CarGurus and looked at competing listings both locally and nationally across all sites.
  • I listed on Cars.com, Autotrader ($49), Facebook, OfferUp, and Craigslist ($5). CarGurus disabled their private used car listings a few days before I listed.
  • I looked into sell-direct marketplaces and dealership offers and those offers ranged from $21 to $24K.
  • I took over 30 photos after the car was detailed and shared the maximum allowed for each platform. My approach was, no surprises, you should see everything that you might note in person. Don’t wate your time, don’t waste my time. The lighting was a bit darker than I wanted – I was going for the golden hour, but everywhere in the area around me ended up being shaded at that time.
  • I decided to use KeySavvy to act as an escrow service protecting both sides. I really liked that I wouldn’t need to handle securing payment and because I had a car loan obligation, I didn’t want to create complications for the buyer.
  • My friend Sean suggested I consider using the recently departed Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking Fast and Slow in considering how to write my sales ad. As Wikipedia describes, the “book’s main thesis is a differentiation between two modes of thought: “System 1” is fast, instinctive and emotional; “System 2” is slower, more deliberative, and more logical.”

As a buyer, I want System 2, to read and research carefully and to make up my mind even before seeing the car. I have bought 3 cars and 2 houses this way. However, Sean’s comment was more about, most people are more likely to be System 1 in how they respond to your ad. I ended up doing both. I’ll let you see both formats and then share more notes about the overall experience that closed with the sale.

System 1 Ad Format (the quick reacting, knee-jerk TLDR person)

2020 Tesla Model Y Long Range AWD | Tow Package + More | 51K Miles

Price:

  • $27,750 (FIRM)
  • “Great Deal” rating by CarGurus.
  • KBB Value: $26,721 – $31,228.

Key Features:

  • Tow Package, Homelink, Autopilot (Not FSD)
  • Panoramic Glass Roof, Heated Seats, Premium Audio
  • 19″ Gemini Wheels

Condition:

  • 50,894 miles (80% highway) under one owner (me)
  • Clean title, no reported accidents
  • Light paint wear, small scuffs, light curb rash on wheels (see photos)

Extras:

  • Tinted Windows, Charging Cable, Extra Floor Mats, and more
  • Carpool Stickers transferable in CA

Warranty:

  • Battery & Drive Unit until June 2028 / 120K miles

Purchase Process:

  • Secure escrowed transaction via KeySavvy ($99 fee for buyer)

Maintenance Summary:

  • Regular maintenance, new tires recently installed.
  • Complete maintenance records and Carfax available for review.

The System 2 Ad Format (what I wish someone would prepare for me)

2020 Tesla Model Y Long Range AWD | Tow Package + More | 51K Miles

I’m selling my 2020 Tesla Model Y Long Range All Wheel Drive as the original owner. The car is in very good condition with 50,894 (80% highway) miles and current range of 291 miles.

The vehicle has a clean title. Carfax report and all repair/maintenance records are available for review. CA DMV registration paid for 2024.

Includes the tow package, homelink for automatic garage door opening/closing, and other bonuses. No FSD.

Asking $27,750.

Price rated as “Great Deal” by CarGurus Car Values. Kelly Blue Book Value Range is $26,721 – $31,228.

VIN: [REMOVED].

Purchase Process:
We will use KeySavvy for the transaction. KeySavvy acts as the escrow, ensuring a safe and easy process. Buyer pays a $99 fee; I will pay all other fees. [LINK]

Recent Maintenance:
-3,500 miles on Michelin Pilot Sport EV tires (20K warranty)
-3,000 miles since the last maintenance visit

Warranty:
Battery & Drive Unit Limited Warranties expire June 28, 2028, or 120,000 miles. Basic Vehicle Limited Warranty has expired.

Vehicle Details and Key Features:
-Tow Package ($1,500)
-Homelink – Automatic Garage Door Opener ($350)
-Exterior Color: Pearl White Multi-Coat
-Interior Color: All Black Premium Interior
-Autopilot (Not FSD)
-19’’ Gemini Light Wheels
-5-seat interior
-Panoramic Glass Roof
-Heated Seats
-Premium Audio System

Condition:
-Light paint wear, various small scuffs and scrapes. See up close photos of driver side door (1”), driver side rear bumper (4”) areas, passenger side rear wheel (.2”).
-Light curb rash on wheels.
-Repaired driver side damage from a 2022 incident – work done by Tesla and Nationwide-approved shop.
-Windshield replaced in May 2024 by Safelite.

Additional Inclusions:
-2 Key Cards
-Windows: Tinted for heat reflection ($1,200).
-Charging Cable: Official Tesla universal charging cable ($250) with Gen 2 NEMA Adapter ($35).
-More: Various accessories including an extra set of floor mats, new official paint repair kit, new official tire repair kit, official (installed) mud flaps and more.
-Carpool Stickers: Automatically transfers to new CA owner.

Maintenance History: All recalls addressed
-Sep 28, 2023: Wheel alignment, standard maintenance at 47,553 mi
-Aug 22, 2023: 12V battery replaced
-Oct 10, 2022: OCS Filter Module installed
-Sep 22, 2022: Tow package installed, standard maintenance
-Sep 02, 2022: Homelink installed
-Nov 05, 2021: Maintenance items

More photos: [Link]

———————

Here’s the rest of the story:

  • I ended up pricing at $27,750 after some initial thoughts of $28,250. I wanted to be the best price in the market. Was I giving up some money? Should I price higher to have some wiggle room to negotiate down? Perhaps yes to both, but I wanted anyone who was remotely interested in the car to reach out to me first. I wanted my car to be prioritized among all other listings. I didn’t know how long this selling process would take and in a soft market with high interest rates, I didn’t want to be left standing in a game of musical chairs – I had experienced this a couple of years ago in the housing market.
  • Facebook generated, by at least 10X, the most inquiries of all the car marketplaces, but 90% of them were not serious. I knew this would happen beforehand, so I vowed to myself to not get annoyed. If someone gave me the Facebook’s default “is this still available?” message, I would give the thumbs up icon. If someone clearly didn’t read the description, I’d give a short reply and point them back to the description. If someone made a lowball offer, I’d say “no, but thank you”. I treated it as garbage in, garbage out – people who gave me a system 1 response would get one back in return. People who were more detailed and thoughtful got a similar level reply back as well.
  • Which System Ad was more effective? I don’t know. I started off with the System 2 ad, but switched to System 1 the following week. The eventual buyer ended up coming from Cars.com and originally saw the System 2 ad. I liked working with him because he was always respectful and asked good questions.
  • I ended up selling for a few hundred dollars less than asking. I was still confident I could sell it for my asking price, but there’s a real cost of continuing to work on selling the car to new parties. I felt taking the 1.4% discount and giving the buyer a small win was worth sparing myself of future effort, which could easily be tens of hours or more in the following weeks. I did end up liking the System 1 ad more because it reduced cognitive overhead for buyers, even if it then put the responsibility on the buyer to know which questions to ask – if you think that’s immoral, most private ads I saw are ridiculously sparse in information.
  • I got interested buyers from all the platforms, but if I rank the platforms by true leads, they probably all come in tied at 1 or 2 each. That means that if I were to do it again, I’d relist on all of them except perhaps OfferUp. Someone tried to scam me there by offering to take over my payments and told me to call him. At the same time, OfferUp is free. In general, I suggest having a high level of vigilance in terms of junk / scam offers and following my garbage in, garbage out policy of responding.
  • Keysavvy (as the escrow) ended up being very easy to use on both sides, and the buyer can simply pay and take control of the car without delay. It took two business days for my bank loan to be paid off and to get the remaining amount in my bank account, but the car buyer can buy and leave with the car within an hour. I chatted with Keysavvy’s customer support a few times before making the sale, and they were great in the process. I was able to make sure I understood what to do, what would happen, and things happened with no surprises.
  • Right now, buyers in the US with less than $150K annual income can purchase an EV that’s less than $25K in price from a dealer and get $4K back in federal rebates. ($24K car effectively becomes $20K) So many people who messaged me were thinking about this, but they’d approach me with “why don’t you drop your price to below 25K so I can get the rebate”. Their thought was why doesn’t this seller take less money because it’s better for me? For those who were more thoughtful about a creative way to approach this, I reciprocated. Again, garbage in garbage out. Keysavvy acts as the dealer because technically, the buyer buys the car from them, and you sell your car to Keysavvy so anyone using Keysavvy can take advantage of the EV offer.
  • For buyers who immediately asked for a test drive, I added a filtering mechanism. I’m not a private dealer who’s just available for people to come by, test drive the car and lowball me. I felt that if someone were serious, they wouldn’t mind some extra friction, and I was surprised by how many people ghosted as soon as I sent the filtering message below:

Hi [Name], you reached out to me about my 2020 Tesla Y. A few things I would like to check on.

1) I hope you have been able to read through my notes in detail about the car, the purchasing process, etc. Any questions there?

2) Also, are you looking to test drive and finalize the transaction with Keysavvy at the same time if everything is good?

3) For the test drive, I’d like to ask for a copy/photo of the driver’s license and insurance in advance.

4) I’ll be asking you to follow a specific route that should take us around 10-15 minutes, but provide a feel on various road conditions including freeway. I ask that only the one person (driving) join the car for the test drive.

Please help me by confirming agreement with these four items. As a reminder, I am firm on price.

In summary, here’s my advice when selling a car on your own:

  • Know that it’s an ordeal.
  • Garbage in, garbage out. Don’t waste your time explaining or getting exasperated with most people – with just a little practice, you will quickly figure out who is extremely unlikely to buy, regardless of what they claim. You can still be courteous, but not waste your time.
  • Do your research so you know how competitive your car is in the market and have confidence in your research. To the previous point, make buyers do what you want them to (price, buying terms, etc.). Anyone who thinks it’s a hassle will eliminate themselves.

Why do we fall? To learn to pick ourselves up (2024 MCBC Dirt Fondo)

“All Dirt Fondo routes are planned with mountain and gravel bikes in mind. Upright bars and suspension will have advantages on the trails and rutted fire road segments, but a gravel bike is great for the smoother fire road bits and road segments. Either way, be prepared for some challenges along the way and walk tough sections if it looks too difficult – no one will judge you!” 2024 Dirt Fondo in Marin, CA.

Unfortunately, I took a hard fall last Saturday at the Dirt Fondo. I flipped on the bike riding a heavy rock garden-esque descent, landing primarily on my right leg around the knee. If you look at the images in the link, my descent was comparatively much rockier and chopped up – imagine pieces of large rock. I later realized I took some impact on my hands (I assumed I tried to brace myself), right forearm and left leg as well. The shock was immediate. I couldn’t move for a while and my right leg just shook uncontrollably. I had a small 1inch diameter cut below the knee which didn’t look bad but I immediately thought, what if I broke my leg?

I was fortunate that a pair of riders was right behind me and saw the crash. They helped make sure I was ok and went back to the previous rest stop to ask for help before moving on. I waited a bit, but when it didn’t seem like help was coming, I decided to continue downhill to make the next rest stop and get help there. Unfortunately, I never saw another rest stop but I did hear from another rider that I was being searched for and I was able to send an update via a volunteer. I rode through more gravel/dirt/rock sections before taking a detour and finding pavement as I rode through beautiful Sausalito back to the start – another 2 hrs of riding after the fall.

  • Should I have picked a different path? This is probably the critical issue. Going down, the edge of the mountain was on the left. I am guessing a 10 foot wide path total split into two. On the left edge is a loose (smaller) rock path, on the right is a rock garden-ish path. I don’t remember exactly why I took the right, but here are a few notes I’ve reflected uplon. There was someone going up hill on my left. Did I see that person before picking the right side? I’m not sure but that would have been a reason to go right, there wasn’t room. Loose rock is very slippery, and because that was the mountain edge side, I may not have wanted to be struggling with slowing down on slippery rock. As I started descending perhaps I wanted to move to the loose rock, but that would have been very scary to attempt. I kind of knew the rock descent was difficult but the decision would have been to focus on surviving, not attempting a tricky transition.
  • Should I have run different (wider) tires? I ran pretty wide tires for gravel, 42mm S-Works Pathfinders that expanded to 47.2mm on my wheels. MTB tires can be 10-20 mm wider but after I fell, I saw other gravel bike riders (who took the other smaller rock line) on thinner tires.
  • Should I have run lower tire pressure? Anything can be second guessed. I was running 22/23 PSI on my tires, which I feel is pretty low. The pair behind me were running wider MTB tires and suspension bikes. Less air would have meant a softer ride but I don’t think that was the culprit.
  • Should I have gone slower or faster? On unpaved terrain, I have learned that going faster is often better than going slower because speed helps you roll over obstacles better. I don’t think I was going fast at all, most likely less than 8 mph. It’s hard for me to remember because it was a descent, I was for sure braking or in a brake position in the drops and I was in a rocky path in which I was just trying to go over big rocks non-stop. I didn’t want to go too fast because I didn’t have good traction but going too slow would stop the bike because of the rocks.
  • What was my position on the bike? Earlier, I mentioned I flipped over the bike. I don’t think that’s accurate. I didn’t land on my head. I think the bike got stopped on a rock and I had to fall over in the process. I don’t think I was front leaning on the bike, but I’m not sure if I was sitting or in a more crouched/standing position on the saddle.

Sitting down, writing this a couple of days later, I of course want to blame the event a bit. If I’m the only one who fell (I do not know if this is the case), then I have to assume it’s my fault, whether that be due to lack of skill, bad luck, or something else.

As for my injury, I learned I haven’t broken anything, or at least nothing that can be seen on X-Ray. That’s good news so far. The bad news is that I couldn’t walk the day after the event because of the swelling in my leg. Thankfully, my body let me ride and drive home on the event day – I was 1.5 hrs driving away from home.

I feel a lot better two days after the accident (if not a bit tired) and remain hopeful I just need time to heal. I can’t walk unsupported yet.

How I Scored Top Tier Cycling Gear at Unbeatable Prices

Cycling is an expensive hobby. (If this were a podcast, I’d just stop talking for a minute. FULL STOP.)

However, I am generally able to buy my gear at vast discounts (50% and above), including helmets, shoes, jerseys, bibs. Even groupsets! These are typically new or open box and high-end. Yes, some (clothes specifically) of it may be off-season but that’s totally fine unless you think things change rapidly in 1 to 3 years.

I want the best possible stuff at the best possible prices and I will wait for deals. I am not someone with a special size either – if you’re really small or really big, your sizes tend to sell out last so you have access to more deals. I wear small in jerseys and bibs, have a large size head, and wear 9.5 and medium / large sized gloves. I basically compete with most people on gear.

Here are some purchases from 2024 and how I got them.

In general, I like to research what’s good. Sites like In the Know Cycling help me whitelist certain brands or items to remember. Price, along with brand can be a signal too. Is this the most or second most expensive shoe this well known brand makes? It’s probably pretty good.

Giro Imperial Road Cycling Shoes. Purchased for 199.97, currently retailing for 424.95 (61% off).

As of this writing, you can still get this on Amazon from a third part seller in new condition. In general, Amazon doesn’t have many high end cycling brands. When they do, products are almost always sold by third parties. If you see certain products you like listed, you can use CamelCamelCamel to bookmark and track the price history of an item. You can see if it’s ever been cheap and to notify you at certain price thresholds. I didn’t do that for these shoes. I just searched for them and noticed a good price when I went into the “other sellers on Amazon” box in the product page. I was in searching for pricing on various shoes and noticed this.

I also found these Muc-Off Tubeless Valves V2 for $15.01 that way – they retail for 34.99, 57% off. They were sold as previous returns in like-new condition by Amazon Resale, formerly Warehouse Deals. Mine weren’t even opened.

I did use CamelCamelCamel to find these Continental GP5000 S TR 28mm tires however.

This is the most popular version of these super fast tires – probably the best all around tire in the world right now. These typically sell for over $95 online and are rarely discounted, but I got alerted when a seller was selling them open box for just $45.88.

In recap for Amazon, as you learn about things you might like, random searches on the site from time to time and using CamelCamelCamel for automated price notifications are really useful. For what it’s worth, I don’t think I have ever found high end bibs and jerseys sold on Amazon.

I’ll give a few more examples, but here are some resources that are worth looking at:

The TrainerRoad thread is a great place for sharing and discussing deals.

BikeCloset is the best single store for deals. It’s the only store I’ll actually subscribe to for notifications. I have bought high end jerseys and bibs there from Castelli, Assos, Louis Garneau and other brands at 50% or more off for things retailing at $150 or more. For the discounts, you have to deal with them not having images for so many things and showing so many out of stock items. There are rarely any descriptions. They’re kind of saying here it is, go do the work online to see if this is the thing you want and the price you want to pay. But that actually appeals to me.

I have never purchased bibs or jerseys for over $100, which is the entry-level clothing price for most of these high end brands. Typically I am getting the first or second tier (Assos is really expensive) product tier at less than their entry level price.

BikeTiresDirect is solid, but its deal volume is nowhere close to BikeCloset – BikeTiresDirect is like a regular store that offers great pricing from time to time, while BikeCloset is a full on clearance outlet, like a Nordstrom Rack for high end bike gear. While there are plenty of sites that offer sales, I prefer to check them out on my own from time to time or see if someone mentions something on TrainerRoad rather than getting email blasts.

I bought these Giro Latch shoes, a flat pedal gravel shoe, for $63.38. (Retail: $149.98, 58% off)

GearLab loved this shoe as a super sticky but lightweight alternative to the Five Ten Freerider Pro, so I looked for deals. I found one through Google Shopping and it’s an example of finding deals by being flexible on style and colors. That’s not to say I’ll just dismiss style completely, but it’s not common for me to find the right product in my preferred color.

The exact same thing happened with getting this S-Works Recon Lace for $112.99 (Retail: $324.99, 65% off). Anything S-Works is the creme de la creme in Specialized’s product line.

Same story with the Giro Aries Spherical Helmet. Purchased for $148.51 as an open box item. (Retail: $299.95, 50% off)

This is the #1 helmet rated for safety by Virginia Tech and Giro’s highest end helmet. White isn’t my favorite color, but it’s also the coolest temperature color and make sense for a helmet focused on cooling.

To sum up, it’s really not that complicated. Research, tools, flexibility on brand and color/style can get you a long way with using the very best products at entry level pricing. If you’re curious about eBay, I think eBay is really good for niche items (that are rarely listed) in excellent to like new condition that are then auctioned. You can find special deals then because most people aren’t looking for those items. Things can slip through the cracks so to speak. I will save notifications on keywords for items that I am interested and simply wait.

If you have any tips, I’d love to hear them. Good luck!

Heliot Ramos is Really Good

Just check out this graph at Baseball Savant:

He may miss the ball (13 and 12 percentile for whiff % and strikeout %) a lot, but he has a good eye (74 percentile for walks), so he’s patient, waiting for something to hit. When he connects, whew! All in the 90 percentile, meaning he is in the top 10% of players in: Expected Slugging, Average Exit Velocity, Bat Speed, Barrel % Hard-Hit %. He fields well (85 percentile in range) and can run (72) in sprint speed but is mediocre in actual baserunning (45 percentile).