[Warriors] And with the second pick…

As the Warriors on Wednesday, if I could trade down slightly, I’d go for Obi Toppin, last year’s college player of the year, and another asset (veteran cog).

From The Athletic:

The best pick-and-roll big in the draft. An absolute monster athlete in terms of explosiveness. Great speed for his size, and it’s really tough for defenders to stay attached to him in exchanges. Can beat taggers to the spot on the back side. A powerful leaper who is an elite dunker and finisher at the rim, having made 76.7 percent of all shots at the rim in non-post-ups, according to Synergy. Also, Toppin is terrific out in transition, creating numerous opportunities every game with his speed and finishing. He’s not just a pick-and-dive guy, though. He’s very fluid and can really shoot it off the catch, particularly out of pick-and-pops. Made his catch-and-shoot attempts at a 58.1 effective field goal percentage, and he has touch and a clean release on the ball that should translate into continued improvement. The questions come on defense, where Toppin is particularly bad in space right now and might be a bit stuck between the 4 and the 5 positions at the NBA level.

Here’s what I see:

  • Amare Stoudemire. Stephen Curry = Steve Nash. Detonate.
  • Offensively, he not only has the skills, but he dominated the college level. Pick and roll, passing, finishing, shooting – I have not heard any negative aspects of his offensive game. Does not need to handle the ball to impact the game – key for the Warriors.
  • Ready to contribute in the NBA to a good team – the Warriors need explosive, skilled athletic ability.


  • Yes, he’s a lot older. He should be college sophomore age but he’s closer to grad student age.
  • Not a good defender. May not have ideal size, length, agility. What I pay attention to is effort, however. Stephen Curry is probably a league average defender. But he puts effort in to maximize his abilities. I have not seen anything to suggest Toppin is an unwilling defender.

Why Toppin and not…anyone else? Yes, there are plenty of raw, high talent, younger candidates out there – let’s talk about Wiseman, Edwards, Ball. Not just raw in terms of potential, but actual achievement at their former levels. I don’t believe any of them can contribute to a playoff team next year because they can be all be abused defensively. As much reports tout Wiseman’s defensive potential, he’s not considered a NBA-ready defender right now. Yes, Toppin is 2-3 years older than the current tier 1 prospects in this draft, but do we really think the others will be better than he is now by year 3? My guess, only one of the three reaches that mark and I have no idea which one.

Looking back historically, Toppin reminds me of Derrick Williams, 2011’s #2 pick. Another explosive, perhaps undersized, big who also shot well from 3 (56%) in college. I still don’t know why Williams did not pan out. Will Toppin’s shot from the college 3 work in the NBA? Will his release time (see SprawlBall) allow him to get that shot off consistently?

As for the Warriors actual interest in Toppin? From NBC Sports:

“The interview call went very well. They have a great organization over there at Golden State. I believe they like me a lot,” Toppin told reporters Wednesday over Zoom.

But Toppin hasn’t spoken with the Warriors since his interview and hasn’t worked out for Golden State. That has to be a bit concerning.

I think this is the perfect smokescreen for pulling off a trade.

What does it take to finish Old La Honda in 20 minutes?

The simple answer: An FTP above 4.0 watts/kg. Old La Honda in Woodside is one of the Bay Area’s benchmark climbs: long enough to make you hurt but short enough where it’s not truly an endurance climb. Nonetheless, it sees like the climb that everyone competes on to have a reference point against everyone else.

To finish this 3 mile / 8% average gradient climb in 20 minutes puts you firmly in the top 10% of all entrants. As of June 2020, almost 27,000 people have completed it and tracked it on Strava.

My best time: 21:06, ranked in the top 10.3% of all cyclists, riding a Canyon Ultimate CF SLX with Ultegra DI2, Disc Brakes. Canyon’s lightest Ultimate frame. I brought along one full water bottle, a rear light, and a bike computer – my minimum, no-accidents-please setup. Low tire pressure at 60/65 front/rear PSI using GP5000 tubeless tires on Roval CL 32 wheels. My guess is the bike + accessories was around 19 pounds.

I probably weighed 142 lbs (I’m 5’6), having eaten no breakfast. Average power during the climb 261 watts, about 4.04 W/KG. My estimated FTP going in was around 3.87 W/KG at 250W.

To be able to shave off that final minute for a 20 minute time, I think that I would need another 10 or so watts, which would take me to 4W/KG.

5 Secrets to Maximize Your MBA Investment

It’s been nearly 5 years since I graduated from Northwestern (Kellogg)’s MBA program; I’ve had plenty of time to reflect on business school and consider its true importance as I finally get close to paying off my six digit student loan.

(Image of the Global Hub building taken from Kellogg’s web site)

Here’s what I would tell anyone looking to start on their own quest for huge paychecks, debt, and a life of constant comparison to your peers:

1) Go as early as possible.

I started at Kellogg with 10 years of multinational work experience, 7 years of people management experience, and a few years of true (small startup) executive experience. All that does not matter in the context of business schools, however. MBA programs are optimized to give students opportunities into template big corporate roles such as product manager and consultant. If you want one of these roles, fantastic. Big brand-name companies will be coming on campus with these roles to recruit you. If you do not, however, you’re on your own. Since so many people come to business school looking to change careers, this makes sense – if you couldn’t work in tech without a background in tech, for example, business school would lose most of its appeal.

Thus, since everyone going to Business School can compete for the same jobs, regardless of their pasts, extra experience does not matter. Conventional wisdom suggests the more you experience you have, the more you can get out of the education. Theoretically, that’s true. But Business School…is a business, and the first step into having a business mindset is understanding return of investment and opportunity cost. Like reading a book, you’re not going to retain much of what you learned over the program. If you can hold on to 10 lessons 5 years after graduation, I would be impressed.

You are in Business School to rebrand yourself as a top-tier business professional. When I went to school, there were a number of younger candidates who were only a couple of years out of undergrad. However, they competed for (and got) the same jobs versus others with much more work experience. If you can work two years and get a $150K offer, that’s much better than working five years for the same offer. You’ve accelerated your career faster and spent less time making less money. In my case, I learned that all my extra experience and stress-honed skills weren’t worth even an extra dollar for the typical MBA role.

Schools including Stanford even have programs to allow you to apply as an undergrad.

2) Go to the most famous school you can…..

In the most recent rankings of U.S. business schools, Kellogg is ranked 2nd by The Economist,[56] 3rd by U.S. News & World Report,[57] and 3rd by Forbes.[58] In addition, Kellogg MBA has consistently been ranked 1st in Marketing by U.S News & World Report.[59]

Oh, is Kellogg ranked (quote from Wikipedia) so high? That’s in the world you say? Oh wow. I must be super good at this “business” thing then. Plus, I majored in marketing. #humblebrag

The reality is rankings don’t matter. No one knows what the rankings are unless you’re applying or currently in the program. It’s really about brand. Ask a random person where you should go to Business School – Harvard or Northwestern. Everyone will say Harvard. If you have a chance to go to Harvard, I don’t care how much you care about Marketing, go to Harvard. Plus, just because you focused on Marketing in your MBA, that does not mean you won’t gravitate towards something else down the road.

Here’s my personal sense of school brand prestige, your perception may vary.

Tier 1:

Stanford / Harvard

Tier 2:

UPenn (Wharton) / U of Chicago / Northwestern (Kellogg) / MIT (Sloan)

Tier 3:

Columbia / UC Berkeley (Haas).

If you’re an M7 fanboy and want to move Columbia or add some Ivy League schools to Tiers 2 and 3, go ahead. I won’t even be offended if you think Kellogg is tier 3 – a friend once told me that Kellogg is only known by people who went to business school. Go to the school, not necessarily the Business School, that’s most famous / in the highest tier.

In pure brand, I admit I’d rank Northwestern possibly in Tier 4, perhaps because I’m from the West Coast. Northwestern could outrank Harvard in Business School for the next ten years straight, but there’s a different longstanding perception (in academic pedigree) of someone who went to Harvard vs someone who went to Northwestern. Challenge me if you disagree. I went to UC Berkeley, perhaps the best public school in the world, but I still can feel a bit intimidated if I’m in the room with someone from Harvard. Tying your personal brand to the school brand helps you to anchor someone that you meet that you’re someone important. If you have to explain why you’re important, it’s too late.

Another way to think of it is that when people hear you work for Google, they’re generally impressed. “She must be the best of the best – I’ve heard how many people want to get in there and about the great compensation + benefits they have”.  There’s even a special term for ex Googlers. Even though there are plenty of mediocre people that work and have worked at Google, that association gives you the benefit of the doubt most of the time.

The bigger thing to remember about rankings is that no one knows if you would be better educated going to X school versus Y. There is no objective test, no clinical trial. The only thing you can rely on is a school’s brand and its history of maintaining its brand.

As another friend told me, brands are a filter to help someone appraise you in a few seconds. Pick the best brand, screw the best fit.

Unless you can go to a school that’s in the geographic area you want to be in post-grad…

Northwestern sends many people into tech now. They’ve had to adapt to what their students want, and thus they also opened an immersion quarter in San Francisco recently, similar to Wharton’s own program.

That said about tiers, if I wanted to work in tech, I’d be willing to sacrifice a tier to go to school in the Bay Area. That means I’d choose UC Berkeley > Kellogg, particularly if I’m not from the Bay Area or don’t have a background in tech. To find special opportunities, not the same MBA role that’s offered at every top tier school, you need to be close to the people that are going to hire you. Being in the local market gives you more time to expand your network, impress people, and gain access to those opportunities.

Then re-shift and make your own tiers based on your target factors (location, industry, etc.).

I’m not sure if this is still true, but during my time, Kellogg’s brand was really weak in Asia, especially in China. UCLA, however, was extremely famous there. UCLA’s Anderson School of Management might be a couple of tiers below Kellogg in any ranking, but if you’re looking to work in China, you should seriously consider UCLA instead.

It doesn’t matter how many links to rankings you share with a hiring manager, they’re not going to care. That’s why you’re investing in the school’s brand, to get you through gates faster.

3) Go part-time, it’s easier.

Most MBA programs, top tier or otherwise, are well over six digit investments. Is that worth it for a school that’s not known (will not help you anchor someone with the perception that you’re great) outside its region? I’d argue you that once you get out of the top 15, surely top 25 business schools, there’s a serious question of how much this degree will help you.

That’s why I suggest going part-time. Sure, you won’t get to party the same way and working while going to school for at least three years requires extreme focus, especially if you have any semblance of a family. However, it is much easier to get into the part-time programs and your long term financials will be better since you will still be working. I haven’t looked into this in detail recently, but I believe the difference of getting into part-time is at least a magnitude of one tier, and perhaps even two. That means the choice could be between full-time at the University of Texas, Austin or part-time at Northwestern.

There is no career penalty, bias, or stigma against part-timers.

4) Don’t bother with an MBA if you’re focused on early-stage startups.

Want to start something new or join an early stage (Seed, Series A with less than 30 people) startup? That’s basically the story of my entire career.

Working at an early stage startup is about understanding how you start from zero with little resources, support, or best practices to guide you. I do not suggest Business School for this, particularly if you’re going to come out of a program with student debt. Large debt can quickly damper any excitement you have to take on more career risk.

Speaking from someone who has experience at the early stage startup and an MBA, if an MBA came to me looking for work, I’d have two concerns:

  1. Can this person thrive on their own?
  2. How much money does this person expect? We can’t pay them that.
  3. I do not want someone looking at my company as a two year gap to something more prestigious.

5) Don’t bother going to Europe.

I thought about INSEAD and London Business School once upon a time. Having grown up in the US, and then working in Asia for many years, I thought it would be fun to check out Europe.

For my career, I am glad I didn’t. European companies do not value MBAs as much as their American counterparts and European schools simply aren’t known in the US – go ask a normal person if they know INSEAD.

I’ll reiterate: get your MBA at the most famous US school you can.

My wife went to IE Business School in Madrid, which is consistently ranked among the top 10 business schools in Europe. Remember what I said about sharing links to rankings to hiring managers? That would have been the case here in the US – no one knew about IE, thus her MBA was no better than any other generic MBA. Making things worse, there was a limited alumni network she could tap into to land a good role as everyone was too disbursed.

When schools talk about how great it is to have diversity in nationalities in student classes, this only pays off for you if most of the those students stay in the same area post-MBA. Otherwise, how else can you depend on alumni for help if they go back to the 100 different countries they came from? I have found that top-tier MBA students want to stay to work in the US because it’s the country that best compensates them for their new skills.

Bonus: About those networks.

I always hear how people go to business school to build personal networks. I think what that means is “I want to make new friends as an adult”. That’s perfectly fine, but I feel that almost everyone is missing out on obvious opportunities during the process. The alumni you interview with to get into the school, the ones you reach out to to learn about the school, or the ones you ask for connections and referrals into your desired companies – these are all people you should stay connected and give updates to. These people are already years ahead of you and can give information and insight far beyond anyone in your class. I always encourage people I talk to to let me know how they’re doing in the future, but no one ever does. Instead, it’s a cycle of “let me use this person for what I need now and just ignore building that potential relationship”. If people didn’t care, they wouldn’t talk to you in the first place, and as long as someone isn’t making demands of me, I’m always happy to hear how someone is doing. Older alumni needs friends too….

Alright! 5 steps and I even threw in a bonus too. I’ll end it here and hope I was able to help you frame your decision about Business School in a different way.