As I write this, the MLB trade deadline is tomorrow evening. The Giants stand at 2 games below .500. They’ve waited a long time for their starting pitching to come off injuries, and over the past two weeks, we’re starting to see how impactful former Cy Young winners Blake Snell and Robbie Ray can be. There are lot of rumors that the Giants will trade Snell, but as a fan, I think if you get a true superstar to galvanize the fan base and go for winning without taking two steps back as a team, you go for it.
I don’t typically think of MLB trades, but it’s so much more complicated to understand the dynamics of near and long term planning and salary management in baseball. But I’ve looked at past comparable trades for superstars including the Juan Soto trade to the Pirates to propose this package to the Blue Jays for Guerrero, Jr.
- Marco Luciano or Bryce Eldridge
- Carson Whisenhunt or Hayden Birdsong
- Camilo Doval
- Lamont Wade Jr
- One other prospect from the top 5-15 list, Blue Jays choice.
In summary, the Giants would trade their #1 hitting prospect, their #1 pitching prospect, their (2023) All Star closer who has 3 more years of team control, and starting first baseman who has another year of team control, and one more top 15 prospect for one of the most popular players in the game who has one more year of team control. Birdsong has played pretty well in the majors so far, and Whisenhunt and Luciano are both at AAA. Eldridge may reach AA this year, so this is a good assortment of legit major league players and almost ready players.
Wade is a legit good MLB hitter, 20% and 40% better than the average hitter the last two years in OPS+. His main issue is injuries. He’s 30 this year but still improving. Guerrero replaces him directly. Doval just turned 27, throws 100MPH. His control can be his downfall, and I think the Rogers twins could replace him ably as the Giants closers. Someone like Reggie Crawford could become the Giants’ next Doval. The Blue Jays have their own All Star closer who has been injured most of the year and could keep both or trade one.
The Blue Jays only do this trade if they’re non-committal about the massive contract decision.
The Giants could then offer Guerrero 15 years at a backloaded $460M (and replacing the last arbitration year), the second largest contract in MLB history, $100M more than the current second place, Aaron Judge. Guerrero is only 25 years old and while not a good fielder (he does have a Gold Glove), this contract takes him to his 40th birthday. He’s only 6 months older than my crush Heliot Ramos, and is already a 4 time All Star. While $460M is no small sum, the average yearly value is just above $31M. 10 years ago, the most valuable per year contract was Ryan Howard at $24M. This year, 4 players including Judge, but not Ohtani since his payments are deferred, are making at least $40M per year. That’s over a 50% increase.
This is all to say, $30M in ten to fifteen years is likely going to feel more like today’s $20M towards the end of the contract with inflation and the expansion of salaries.
I Spit Hot Fire 