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Basketball Sports

[Warriors] And with the second pick…

As the Warriors on Wednesday, if I could trade down slightly, I’d go for Obi Toppin, last year’s college player of the year, and another asset (veteran cog).

From The Athletic:

The best pick-and-roll big in the draft. An absolute monster athlete in terms of explosiveness. Great speed for his size, and it’s really tough for defenders to stay attached to him in exchanges. Can beat taggers to the spot on the back side. A powerful leaper who is an elite dunker and finisher at the rim, having made 76.7 percent of all shots at the rim in non-post-ups, according to Synergy. Also, Toppin is terrific out in transition, creating numerous opportunities every game with his speed and finishing. He’s not just a pick-and-dive guy, though. He’s very fluid and can really shoot it off the catch, particularly out of pick-and-pops. Made his catch-and-shoot attempts at a 58.1 effective field goal percentage, and he has touch and a clean release on the ball that should translate into continued improvement. The questions come on defense, where Toppin is particularly bad in space right now and might be a bit stuck between the 4 and the 5 positions at the NBA level.

Here’s what I see:

  • Amare Stoudemire. Stephen Curry = Steve Nash. Detonate.
  • Offensively, he not only has the skills, but he dominated the college level. Pick and roll, passing, finishing, shooting – I have not heard any negative aspects of his offensive game. Does not need to handle the ball to impact the game – key for the Warriors.
  • Ready to contribute in the NBA to a good team – the Warriors need explosive, skilled athletic ability.

Concerns:

  • Yes, he’s a lot older. He should be college sophomore age but he’s closer to grad student age.
  • Not a good defender. May not have ideal size, length, agility. What I pay attention to is effort, however. Stephen Curry is probably a league average defender. But he puts effort in to maximize his abilities. I have not seen anything to suggest Toppin is an unwilling defender.

Why Toppin and not…anyone else? Yes, there are plenty of raw, high talent, younger candidates out there – let’s talk about Wiseman, Edwards, Ball. Not just raw in terms of potential, but actual achievement at their former levels. I don’t believe any of them can contribute to a playoff team next year because they can be all be abused defensively. As much reports tout Wiseman’s defensive potential, he’s not considered a NBA-ready defender right now. Yes, Toppin is 2-3 years older than the current tier 1 prospects in this draft, but do we really think the others will be better than he is now by year 3? My guess, only one of the three reaches that mark and I have no idea which one.

Looking back historically, Toppin reminds me of Derrick Williams, 2011’s #2 pick. Another explosive, perhaps undersized, big who also shot well from 3 (56%) in college. I still don’t know why Williams did not pan out. Will Toppin’s shot from the college 3 work in the NBA? Will his release time (see SprawlBall) allow him to get that shot off consistently?

As for the Warriors actual interest in Toppin? From NBC Sports:

“The interview call went very well. They have a great organization over there at Golden State. I believe they like me a lot,” Toppin told reporters Wednesday over Zoom.

But Toppin hasn’t spoken with the Warriors since his interview and hasn’t worked out for Golden State. That has to be a bit concerning.

I think this is the perfect smokescreen for pulling off a trade.

By Michael

I write whatever I feel like, and often do so foolishly. Opinions here are always my own unless explicitly mentioned otherwise.

Professionally, I am a startup warrior and I hold a MBA from Kellogg (Northwestern). I live in the San Francisco Bay Area (California).

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